A lot of this unpredictability stems from the weak bench and lack of maturity. Fans constantly dream up crazy scenarios for their team to get out of the current reality and magically bring them immortal powers. I often have wondered if it's better to stand pat or wheel and deal, potentially bolstering the bench with more mature veterans (Tony Allen?).
So today I took the current NBA standings for January 27th, 2011 and tallied the number of roster transactions for each team. You can see the results are somewhat telling of this season. There are a variety of reasons for the transactions we seen this year, the least of which is the summer of Lebron.
CLICK TO OPEN LARGE
1. Check out Dallas, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Indiana. These are some of the extreme outliers. But in general you find that the top top teams made a lot of roster moves as well as the bottom bottom teams.
2. Most of the movements on the top teams were free agent signs.
3. Most of the movements on the mid-low tier teams were rookie contract and journeymen 10-day contract signs and waives, but some teams like New Jersey buck that trend as they were busy in all avenues.
4. The average teams seem to be happy where they are in terms of wins and transactions. I guess in this economy you don't want to make unnecessary risks, do you agree?
5. OKC is happy where they are because they are the kings of the future apparently - they didn't need to tweak much. Utah and Portland have struggled, and we can maybe see why they fail to keep up with the Western elite. We see the same observation for Orlando.
Rather than speculate any more I'll leave you to analyze the data yourself and make your own conclusions. For the Grizzlies I would say they are doing about as much as they could without being to rash this season, relative to other franchises in their position. So my fanatical instinct to do something radical mid-season is probably very irrational, as original suspected.