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Oct 8, 2010

Fantasy Preview - Rookies

Most fantasy drafts are more about who to avoid, especially in the early rounds, rather than who to go after. I never ask "who are the top 10 players this season?" I ask, "who are the players most likely to be productive fantasy players all 82 games?" You don't want to be the guy with Gilbert Arenas or Greg Oden in the last couple seasons – that's my point!

Rookies are difficult to gauge because a guy like James Harden can be a role player that you may never use, or you could end up with Steph Curry or Brandon Jennings further down the draft order who are bonafide starters. Here's what I think.

Who's ready to BREAKOUT?

  1. John Wall
  2. Greg Monroe
    If Greg Monroe doesn't contribute right away the Pistons' season is over. They need an upgrade over Chris Wilcox and Ben Wallace pronto. Jerebko is out for the season so this guy should be looked at as your second or third string PF.
  3. Demarcus Cousins
    This guy could fall flat, but I think Dalembert will be his backup. He got 16 and 16 in his first outing. A monster in the making!
  4. Gordon Hayward
    Utah will need to make up for loss of Korver, Brewer, and Wesley Matthews. Hayward could easily end up in the starting lineup this year.
  5. Tiago Splitter
    I came to my senses and added him on here. Once healthy he should come out swinging and replacing DeJuan Blair on the depth chart.

Who to avoid

  1. Evan Turner
    Pretty obvious one. He's averaging 15% FG in two preseason games and can't start ahead of Jodie Meeks.
  2. Blake Griffin
    Yes he could emerge as ROY but right now I'm not seeing it. And history is against him with the injury. I can't think of any player that missed their first season and had an above average return. (This one will possibly come back to haunt me!)
  3. Derrick Favors
    This guy had a long way to go his Freshman year at Tech, and you can see it by their poor record last season in the ACC. He's got all that upside but it may take a while for it to manifest. By the end of the year Tech was one of the only teams in the nation that came close to stopping Duke from their Title run. But close doesn't count.
  4. Al-Farouq Aminu
    I think this guy will be a solid bust.
  5. Patrick Patterson
    Houston is rich now in big men with Yao coming back. I don't think they will rely on Patterson much unless they fall out of playoff contention. So this is not a guy you want in November. Chuck Hayes and Jordan Hill would have to be injured for him to get off the bench.
There's a handful of guys that could go either way. For that reason I'd avoid Xavier Henry, Wesley Johnson, Paul George, Luke Babbitt, James Anderson, Seraphin. Keep an eye on Babbitt if Rudy Fernandez gets traded or quits the team. I do like Larry Sanders, Dominique Jones, and Eric Bledsoe. I just wouldn't draft any of these guys!
update: Of course, the day I send this out Blake Griffin and Aminu have a coming out party. Oh well' it's preseason only. Let's wait and see.

1 comment:

poker affiliate resource said...

The Clippers have a lot of good young talent on the roster, and if Griffin can stay healthy they could slide into the playoffs this season. Kaman and Baron Davis are All-Star caliber and Gordon and Griffin are future stars.