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Aug 18, 2009

offseason theory

  • Article Link—Basketball and Theory of Networks


    Essentially they reduced basketball possession to a series of network packet switches that must be made in order for the information to reach its destination (the hoop). Now in optimizing the network you can't have every single ball go through the same hands to reach the hoop. The lane gets clogged, the defender predicts the ball movement and forces turnover, or one overworked unit of the network fails due to fatigue (Ray Allen, a top shooter of the league, only converts 48% of attempted deliveries). Imagine sending 100 emails and only 48 actually get delivered. Unacceptable!

    I hope I haven't damaged the contents of the article summary, but definitely read up on that one. Very interesting.

  • NBA Stats Blog
    This is great to follow just to see what people are trying to do with stats. I like the "NBA Players and the Aging Curve" articles particularly, http://nbastats.wordpress.com/2009/08/11/nba-players-and-the-aging-curve-part-3/

    I now try to speculate the length of career that current Memphis Grizzlies players will have, in hopes to predict what their upcoming season stats will be compared to last year. If Rudy Gay has a nice long career then we expect him to improve again this year. The same goes for Mayo and Conley regardless of their career length since they are so young. Marc Gasol is in the same boat as Gay. If he has a medium length career then we can't expect much more from him this year, even though it's just his second season in NBA, his age is relatively high for our young team.

    Zach Randolph poses the worst case. He has 8 seasons behind him. In the best case he might have a 13 season career. Any time after that he'll likely be doing very small contributions. But regardless, for his 9th season the average stats tell us he will decline this year in all categories. So my expectations for ZBO are tempered. I hope he has more of an intangible positive effect on the rest of the team results on either end of the court. That's all we can really hope for so that the career of our other young guns continue to boom.
  • 1 comment:

    J-Bo said...

    hahaha my dude!... do you speak spanish?...

    100% agree... actually Mike Miller is a better small forward than Rudy Gay... but to me Gay is a potential All-Star...